Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Colonizing Space

25,000 years ago when a group of nomadic human explorers crossed the Bering Strait land bridge from Russia to Alaska they proved their unique ability to quickly adapt to new and changing environments and established their dominance as rulers and guardians of their planet. Since then humans have been able to survive in nearly every environment present on earth, from the deserts of Africa to the northern tundras of Canada and Siberia. We have proved ourselves capable of surviving in the most inhospitable places, and it is due time we use this ability to take us to the next logical step, beyond the boundaries of our atmosphere and into space.

Our planet is going through a series of crises at an unprecedented level. Population explosions, Climate change, Natural resource depletion, and War perpetually threaten our societies at the global level. By the look of it, these problems aren't going away any time soon regardless of the recent increases in international cooperation aimed at alleviating them.

According to the United Nations, 13 million people go to bed hungry at night on the continent of Africa alone, and 24,000 die from hunger daily. This is in large part due to an uncontrolled population explosion on the continent that causes people to deprive their surroundings of the ability to maintain stable supplies of food, water, and essential resources needed not only for themselves, but for other species, to survive. Destruction of habitats and introduction of invasive species due to expansion of human civilization spells dire consequences for native wildlife and contributes to the decay of our stable climate. A National geographic report on climate change conducted in 2001 shows that by the year 2050 an estimated one million species will have gone extinct as a result of human impact on global climate. This is beginning to happen. The Yangtze river dolphin was declared functionally extinct in early 2007 due to pollution of it's natural habitat, and all 5 other species of freshwater dolphin in Asia may soon share the same fate, as they are all listed as critically endangered on the international list of threatened species. An economic report conducted by UK experts reveals that the seven most rapidly developing countries, known as the “E7” could account for 50% of global carbon emissions by 2050. Fossil fuels constitute 85% of energy consumption in the United States according to the US department of energy. Even these shocking data are overshadowed by the political philosophies of the world today. The concept of “mutually assured destruction” wherein nuclear weapons are launched on a massive scale, familiar to anyone who lived during the Cold War, elicits a fear that our entire race could be eradicated in one fell swoop. War and suffering prevail in countries all over the world. Not only must we prepare for the consequences of our abuse of the environment, but we who are aware of this must live knowing that our very survival is at stake. Some people turn to religion to relieve their fears, but others see this as an outrage. Why should we stand idly by as the security of our lives is being threatened more and more? As parents, we in western society take the security of our homes and families very seriously. As workers we value our job security. Why don't we worry more about our own survival as a race?

After the space race in the '60s it may have seemed that our space programs came to a screeching halt, and, to a point, they did. The last time we landed a man on the moon was in 1972, partly due to lack of funding and lack of interest. Relatively few space projects have obtained funding in recent years compared to the massive amount during the space race.

On October 4, 2004 the first private spacecraft, known as SaceShipOne, entered the record books. It was built by Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Group, and is the first ship in a planned fleet of sub-orbital spaceships designed to make space available to the masses. Every ship will have the ability to dock with the International Space Station, a project in development since 1998 that can house 3 permanent residents and is itself a testament to the power of the human desire to explore and learn.

We have been successful in inhabiting environments nearly as harsh as space here on earth. At present, there exists an underwater hotel off the coast of Florida that allows visitors to view first-hand reef life from the comfort of a breathable atmosphere. Plans for the construction of more facilities like this around the world are under way. A research facility currently being constructed on the south pole is already able to accommodate 200 residents. Many such stations on a smaller scale are scattered throughout Antarctica. Our survival abilities in such conditions could translate into living in extraterrestrial circumstances.

Logical locations for space colonies exist throughout our solar system. The closest of these are the 5 Lagrangian points of the Earth-moon system, points at which the pull of gravity from the Earth is effectively zero. This would allow a colony to sustain a nearly perfect position relative to the Earth with the expulsion of negligible amounts of energy. The next logical position of a colony would be the moon itself, where large deposits of a highly efficient energy source called H-3 could be mined. Next comes Mars. Numerous scientists have suggested we subject Mars to a process called “terraformation” that would essentially turn the Red Planet into a second Earth. Terraformation would take many generations, however, and it would be best to start out with a biodome. Other resource rich areas that many would consider good places for a colony include the asteroid belt, Jupiter's Io, Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto, and Saturn's Titan. Colonies themselves could one of many sorts, including self-sustaining space stations, long term research and resource collecting vessels, atmospheric biodomes, and full-scale terraformed planets or moons.

It is our responsibility as sentient beings to assure the survival of our race. It is at the heart of every human to protect what is most dear to them, and what could be more precious than our own home planet? Space colonization can be an integral part in assuring our survival and protecting our environment.

Threshold

Throughout history, mankind has faced countless problems. Technology has arisen as a result of trying to fix these problems, and has allowed us to become a civilization. There exists standards by which we can measure the progress of technology and civilization. One, Moore's law, states that processing power of integrated circuits doubles every 24 months, and has since been used as a status quo in the processor industry. Another, Kardeshev's scale, is used to measure classes of civilizations. A class 1 civilization will have harnessed all of the energy available on its home planet, a class 2, its solar system, and a class 3, its galaxy. Current estimates say that mankind is currently a 0.71 on this scale. Based on the assumption that our energy consumption will increase by 1% per year, as it has nearly every year since the industrial revolution, we will reach class 1 status in about 200 years, at which time it may become necessary, due to the demands of everyday life, for humans to supplement their intelligences with technology

The human brain can hold between 1 and 1000 terabytes of data and has the capacity to perform calculations roughly equivalent to that of a 168ghz processor, or double that of a Playstaion 3, at around 84ghz. If money was not an issue, one could purchase a home computer today that would be able to perform up to par with a human brain, if software would allow. Therein lies the problem. Because of the inherent complexities of modeling the human thought process, only relatively simple representations of intelligence have been programmed. These programs govern the actions of the artificial intelligences in computer games, search engines, and in speech recognition software.

Whether humans themselves become able to store their entire consciousness in a computer, or software that emulates human consciousness is developed, there are many daunting unknowns that arise. Some believe that since significance is a subjective emotional function, it is impossible to exist objectively outside of people's thoughts and feelings. Regardless, If enhanced consciousness does become the dominant form, what type of government will prevail? Will it trivialize human identity? Does it present an equal risk of disaster as opportunity for progress? Will it violate our current moral codes? These questions have been answered by numerous futurists and science fiction writers.

Egalitarians see supplementing our consciousness with computers as fulfilling the reality of the human condition. It promises equality and eliminates mental and physical barriers. As a contrast to those who believe that significance is subjective, transhumanists believe in a teleological “perfectionist ethical imperative,” and therefore see expanding our consciousness as helpful in that it improves quality of life for all peoples and eliminates disease, disability, and malnutrition.

On the flip side, the technology that becomes available if humans were to enhance their intelligences presents the risk of what is known as the “grey goo scenario,” in which nanoscale machines break loose and consume every bit of organic matter on the planet, leaving nothing but uniform grey goo in their wake. Fears that humanity will become something like the Borg in Star Trek are abundant in the science fiction world. There seems to be a negative connotation attached to the advancement of intelligent machines. Perhaps this is due to the unknown consequences arising in the absence of precedence, as nothing comparable has ever happened in the history of mankind.

The Internet allows access to about 5 exabytes, or 5 million terabytes of information as of 2007. As a comparison, 10 meters of shelved books contain about 1Gb, the library of congress contains 10 Tb, and 200Pb is all of the printed material on the planet. Imagine what would be possible if all of that data were contained in what would be the equivalent of someone's head. We could achieve the impossible. We have the technology to become such transcendent beings, just not the know-how. If resources were devoted solely to the development of this knowledge, it is not inconceivable that we could begin to see applications of transcendent technology being employed within the next 20 or 30 years. More than likely, we will arrive at a healthy balance between becoming what we would now call “robots” and maintaining our exclusively “human” traits. It is now up to us to decide if this is the right path we want our civilization to take.

Sunday, November 18, 2007

fere libenter homines id quod volunt credunt

As a rule, men willingly believe that which they wish to.