Threshold

Throughout history, mankind has faced countless problems. Technology has arisen as a result of trying to fix these problems, and has allowed us to become a civilization. There exists standards by which we can measure the progress of technology and civilization. One, Moore's law, states that processing power of integrated circuits doubles every 24 months, and has since been used as a status quo in the processor industry. Another, Kardeshev's scale, is used to measure classes of civilizations. A class 1 civilization will have harnessed all of the energy available on its home planet, a class 2, its solar system, and a class 3, its galaxy. Current estimates say that mankind is currently a 0.71 on this scale. Based on the assumption that our energy consumption will increase by 1% per year, as it has nearly every year since the industrial revolution, we will reach class 1 status in about 200 years, at which time it may become necessary, due to the demands of everyday life, for humans to supplement their intelligences with technology

The human brain can hold between 1 and 1000 terabytes of data and has the capacity to perform calculations roughly equivalent to that of a 168ghz processor, or double that of a Playstaion 3, at around 84ghz. If money was not an issue, one could purchase a home computer today that would be able to perform up to par with a human brain, if software would allow. Therein lies the problem. Because of the inherent complexities of modeling the human thought process, only relatively simple representations of intelligence have been programmed. These programs govern the actions of the artificial intelligences in computer games, search engines, and in speech recognition software.

Whether humans themselves become able to store their entire consciousness in a computer, or software that emulates human consciousness is developed, there are many daunting unknowns that arise. Some believe that since significance is a subjective emotional function, it is impossible to exist objectively outside of people's thoughts and feelings. Regardless, If enhanced consciousness does become the dominant form, what type of government will prevail? Will it trivialize human identity? Does it present an equal risk of disaster as opportunity for progress? Will it violate our current moral codes? These questions have been answered by numerous futurists and science fiction writers.

Egalitarians see supplementing our consciousness with computers as fulfilling the reality of the human condition. It promises equality and eliminates mental and physical barriers. As a contrast to those who believe that significance is subjective, transhumanists believe in a teleological “perfectionist ethical imperative,” and therefore see expanding our consciousness as helpful in that it improves quality of life for all peoples and eliminates disease, disability, and malnutrition.

On the flip side, the technology that becomes available if humans were to enhance their intelligences presents the risk of what is known as the “grey goo scenario,” in which nanoscale machines break loose and consume every bit of organic matter on the planet, leaving nothing but uniform grey goo in their wake. Fears that humanity will become something like the Borg in Star Trek are abundant in the science fiction world. There seems to be a negative connotation attached to the advancement of intelligent machines. Perhaps this is due to the unknown consequences arising in the absence of precedence, as nothing comparable has ever happened in the history of mankind.

The Internet allows access to about 5 exabytes, or 5 million terabytes of information as of 2007. As a comparison, 10 meters of shelved books contain about 1Gb, the library of congress contains 10 Tb, and 200Pb is all of the printed material on the planet. Imagine what would be possible if all of that data were contained in what would be the equivalent of someone's head. We could achieve the impossible. We have the technology to become such transcendent beings, just not the know-how. If resources were devoted solely to the development of this knowledge, it is not inconceivable that we could begin to see applications of transcendent technology being employed within the next 20 or 30 years. More than likely, we will arrive at a healthy balance between becoming what we would now call “robots” and maintaining our exclusively “human” traits. It is now up to us to decide if this is the right path we want our civilization to take.